A hyped Apple foldable meets cooler consumer reality
Apple’s foldable iPhone Ultra is the expected first folding iPhone that combines a book-style, tablet-like screen, premium components and new software ideas, but fresh survey data shows consumer enthusiasm and upgrade intent are weaker than many investors and fans had assumed, raising questions about demand for this high-end experiment in a maturing smartphone market.
For years, iPhone Ultra rumors have promised a dramatic form-factor shift: a device that opens side to side like a book, with a display roughly the size of an iPad mini and software that behaves more like iPad apps than classic iPhone layouts. Whispers about Apple’s foldable project go back to 2016, but this year reports have surged, with leaks pointing to a September launch alongside the iPhone 18 line and claims that the foldable remains on track despite manufacturing snags. At the same time, a new multi-country survey of over 7,500 smartphone users has “cast a substantial pall over Apple’s iPhone-related demand pillars,” highlighting soft interest both in the company’s AI features and its upcoming foldable phone.
The clash between lofty expectations and muted Apple consumer interest is the real story. Apple has so far sat out the folding phone market while rivals such as Google, Motorola, and Samsung have already shipped several generations of foldables and even moved into triple-fold designs. By arriving late with an Apple foldable iPhone that is expected to cost well over USD 2,000 (approx. RM9,200), the company seems to be betting that polish, ecosystem integration and branding can overcome a demand picture that now looks far less automatic than the hype suggests.
New Siri, old problem: software isn’t triggering upgrades
If Apple hoped its next wave of software and AI would nudge users into earlier upgrades, the survey shows the opposite. According to the UBS Evidence Lab data, respondents willing to upgrade sooner for Apple Intelligence and the new Siri features have fallen by 5 percentage points, to only 24 percent of those surveyed. That is not the response of a market hungry to pay more for smarter voice control. The share of people indifferent to these features climbed to 31 percent, undercutting the idea that AI can carry the upgrade cycle on its own.
This matters because Apple is “apparently banking on the new Siri’s enhanced functionality to justify the upcoming price hikes.” With the iPhone 18 Pro expected to retail at USD 1,399 (approx. RM6,440), the bar for perceived value is high. Yet the average age of an iPhone in use remains near survey highs at 22.9 months, and although it has dipped slightly—by 0.8 months—it still signals that people are hanging on to their devices longer. Users are not convinced that smarter software alone is enough reason to shorten their replacement cycles, especially when those cycles are getting more expensive.
The lesson for the foldable iPhone Ultra is blunt: if Apple Intelligence cannot drive meaningful early upgrades on mainstream slabs, it is unlikely to rescue demand for a niche, ultra-premium form factor. Software can enhance the experience, but this data shows it is not yet a decisive purchase trigger at the prices Apple wants to charge.
Foldable phone demand: Apple is late, and the buzz is fading
On paper, the timing for an Apple foldable iPhone looked perfect. Competitors have already absorbed the early pain of hinges, creases and fragile screens, while building demand for folding phone concepts through multiple generations. Samsung now shows off a cutting-edge triple-fold design, with a new Galaxy Z Fold 8 Wide expected, and brands like Motorola and Google have viable, refined lines of foldables. Apple could have swept in with a polished iPhone Ultra, benefiting from years of user education without bearing the earliest engineering failures.
Instead, demand momentum appears to be cooling just as Apple arrives. The UBS survey’s net interest metric for Apple’s foldable—defined as the gap between those expressing interest and those showing indifference—has slipped by 100 basis points to 39 percent. That is still a solid number on its own, but the direction is the problem: after years of iPhone Ultra rumors, interest is not rising; it is edging down. Foldable phone demand is no longer a novelty story. The segment has become another premium niche, and its growth may be slower than the hype implied.
The one bright spot is that the foldable iPhone’s favorability compared with a generic foldable increased by 6 percent. People who like foldables tend to prefer Apple’s version sight unseen, which shows the strength of the brand. But preference within a niche is not the same as expanding the niche itself. Without a strong wave of new curiosity about folding devices, Apple is left selling to a relatively fixed pool of early adopters rather than igniting a mass-market shift.
Can a high-priced hardware leap beat survey math?
From a hardware perspective, the iPhone Ultra sounds like the kind of engineering statement piece Apple loves. Reports describe it as “the most significant overhaul in the iPhone’s history and the first actual form-factor change,” opening like a book and aiming to deliver a mini-tablet screen that runs iOS with side-by-side apps tailored for a dynamic range of sizes and aspect ratios. Sources close to the project say Apple is targeting pain points other foldables have not fully solved: durability, screen quality and the distracting crease down the middle of the display.
That technical ambition comes at a cost. The foldable iPhone is expected to be priced at well over USD 2,000 (approx. RM9,200), firmly above even the rising price of the iPhone 18 Pro. For early adopters to pay that kind of premium, the device has to feel not just better, but categorically different. Yet the same UBS survey shows Apple Intelligence and new Siri features are “not spurring much excitement,” and the share of respondents indifferent to these software upgrades is growing. Hardware alone is supposed to close that gap, but that is a tall order when the basic smartphone experience is already mature for most people.
This is where the demand story wobbles. Apple consumer interest in buying an iPhone soon has risen modestly in some markets—up 3 percentage points year-over-year to 20 percent in one major market, with smaller gains elsewhere—but slipped in another large market to 15 percent of respondents. With upgrade cycles long, prices rising and a key AI feature set failing to excite most users, it is hard to see a USD 2,000-plus foldable as a volume driver rather than a halo product.
Apple’s foldable gamble: halo device, not upgrade engine
The emerging picture from the survey is that Apple’s foldable iPhone Ultra is unlikely to be the demand catalyst many expected. Net interest is sliding, only 24 percent of respondents say they would upgrade sooner for new Siri features, and indifference to those AI upgrades is rising. That is not the backdrop you want when preparing to ask well over USD 2,000 (approx. RM9,200) for a first-generation foldable.
None of this means the Apple foldable iPhone will fail as a product. It may deliver a stunning, crease-minimised screen, better durability and a clever blend of iPhone and iPad experiences that enthusiasts love. It may also strengthen the brand’s image as an innovator and give Apple valuable experience in flexible displays. But survey data suggests hardware innovation alone is no longer enough to justify premium pricing for many buyers, especially when software features are struggling to move the needle.
The more realistic framing is that iPhone Ultra will launch as a halo device that rewards the most committed fans rather than a mass-market upgrade engine. Unless Apple can pair its foldable hardware with software and services that deliver unmistakable, daily value, the future of foldable phone demand may remain a niche story—impressive technology, limited impact on the broader iPhone upgrade cycle.
