The Big Disconnect: Production Surges as Interest Softens
Apple’s foldable iPhone strategy is the growing gap between how aggressively the company is preparing to build premium foldable phones and how cautiously many buyers are approaching their next iPhone upgrade, especially when new AI and Siri features are not convincing them to move faster. A fresh survey of more than 7,500 smartphone users found that while short‑term iPhone purchase intent has ticked up in several major markets, it has fallen in one of Apple’s most important regions, and enthusiasm for the coming foldable iPhone has cooled, with its net interest metric slipping by 1 percentage point to 39 percent. At the same time, Apple has told suppliers to prepare about 10 million foldable iPhones this year, up from an earlier 7–8 million target, signaling real production commitment rather than a cautious test run. That tension—between boardroom confidence and consumer hesitation—defines the premium phone market’s next phase.
New Siri, Old Phones: Why AI Alone Is Not Moving the Needle
Apple is betting that Apple Intelligence and new Siri features will make premium iPhones feel indispensable, but buyers are not yet treating them as must‑upgrade tools. The recent survey shows that respondents willing to upgrade their iPhone sooner specifically to get the new features fell by 5 percentage points to only 24 percent. In other words, three out of four people are content to sit tight. That is a major problem for a company already preparing iPhone price hikes, including an expected iPhone 18 Pro price of USD 1,399 (approx. RM6,430). According to UBS Evidence Lab, “Apple Intelligence and the new Siri are not spurring much excitement,” and the net interest score for a top‑end iPhone Ultra has dropped by 100 basis points. If AI does not meaningfully improve daily messaging, photos, or battery life in ways people feel, it will not rescue iPhone upgrade demand on its own.
Five iPhones, One Strategy: Diversify Premium, Not Just Fold
Apple’s roadmap makes clear that the foldable iPhone is not a one‑device gamble but part of a broader premium portfolio push. Over the next two years the company plans at least five new models, including two premium iPhone 18 devices, a standard iPhone 18, a new iPhone Air, and its first foldable phone. Reports say Apple has already lined up components for about 80 million smartphones for the second half of 2026, and total production is projected to exceed 220 million units that year. On top of that, at least two more iPhones—the standard iPhone 18 and an updated iPhone Air—are planned for the first half of 2027, extending releases beyond the usual autumn window. This looks less like a single moonshot and more like a portfolio play: flood the premium phone interest segment with choices so that if foldable demand disappoints, other high‑end models still keep iPhone upgrade demand alive.
Price, Supply, and the Risk of Paying to Be First
The biggest threat to the Apple foldable iPhone is not only whether people want a folding screen; it is whether they are willing to pay early‑adopter prices in a supply‑strained world. The global rush for high‑bandwidth memory and advanced chips for AI servers has pushed memory prices sharply higher. Apple’s suppliers confirm that memory constraints are forcing device makers to rethink plans, and Apple itself has already increased prices on some MacBook and iPad models due to higher memory and storage costs. Recent Mac and iPad price moves show that this memory crunch has already reached customers, and future pricing and availability remain uncertain. That is a warning sign for any new premium category: if memory costs stay elevated, a foldable iPhone could launch not only at a steep price but also in limited quantities, turning early buyers into stress‑tested beta testers instead of confident adopters.
What Premium Buyers Should Do Now
For buyers sitting on older phones, the message is uncomfortable but clear: patience may beat impulse. iPhone purchase intent has risen modestly in several regions—up 3 percentage points to 20 percent of respondents in one key market, with gains of 6, 4, and 1 points in others—but has fallen to 15 percent in another major market, highlighting how uneven demand has become. Meanwhile, the average iPhone age remains high at 22.9 months and close to prior survey peaks, even after ticking down slightly. Add in a crowded 2026–2027 launch calendar that includes a redesigned entry‑level 14‑inch MacBook Pro, faster iPad Pro models, and new M‑series chips tuned for tougher AI workloads, all targeted around spring 2027. Anyone planning a purchase may soon have to decide whether the next available model is enough or whether a larger hardware change is worth waiting for. For most people, the sensible move is to hold off on a foldable iPhone until prices settle, reliability is proven, and Apple’s AI gains are clearly useful in daily life.
