Apple’s outsized smartwatch gains in a slow-growing market
Apple Watch’s market share surge refers to Apple increasing its global smartwatch shipments by 21% year-over-year to capture 23% of all smartwatch shipments, far outpacing the overall market’s 4% growth and widening the gap with rivals whose volumes are shrinking. This is not a story of a booming category; it is a story of one player pulling away while others stall. According to Counterpoint Research, global smartwatch shipments rose just 4% in the first quarter of 2026, yet Apple’s shipment volume jumped by 21% and lifted its slice of the market from 20% to 23%. In the same period, Samsung’s smartwatch business contracted by 28%, cutting its share from 7% to 5% and signaling that Wear OS-based competitors are failing to convert overall wearable market trends into meaningful growth. When the market inches forward but one brand races ahead, it suggests a strategic advantage rather than a temporary blip.
| Metric | Apple Watch | Samsung Smartwatches |
|---|---|---|
| Shipment change (YoY) | +21% | -28% |
| Market share | 23% | 5% |
| Position in global market | Fastest-growing top brand | Sharply deteriorating business |
Health tracking and higher prices: what users are voting for
The smartwatch shipment growth that exists today is being driven by a clear user priority: better health tracking features, even if they cost more. The average selling price of smartwatches climbed 6% in the quarter, pushed up by demand for advanced health monitoring, AI capabilities, and satellite connectivity. Consumers are moving from basic fitness bands to more capable devices, especially in emerging markets, which is raising the baseline of what a “normal” wearable should do. Buyers responded strongly to health upgrades on Apple’s main Watch models, and the more affordable Watch SE 3 acted as a gateway for first-time smartwatch users. That mix of high-end and entry-level options means people who care about health metrics do not have to opt out because of price, even as the category’s average cost rises. In effect, the market is rewarding brands that treat health data as central rather than optional.
Regional demand shifts: Apple, Huawei and Xiaomi carve the growth
Under the surface of headline market share numbers sit major regional shifts that favor companies with strong ecosystems. North America still delivers more than half of Apple’s smartwatch shipments, but the fastest growth comes from Europe and China, where improved sensors on the 2025 lineup and the lower-priced SE 3 attracted new buyers. In China, smartwatch shipments surged 15% year-over-year, helped by extended government electronics subsidies that made high-end upgrades more accessible. Huawei captured roughly 40% of this local market and nudged its global share from 16% to 17%, while Xiaomi posted 9% shipment growth. These gains show that Apple is not the only brand benefiting from wearable market trends, but it is the one turning moderate global growth into disproportionate worldwide scale. Where subsidies and first-time buyers appear, the brands with compelling health and ecosystem stories win first.
Samsung’s Galaxy Watch decline and the looming hardware reset
Samsung’s 28% shipment decline is more than a bad quarter; it is a warning that the current Galaxy Watch strategy is misaligned with what the market is rewarding. Its share has slipped to 5%, and analysts expect Q2 figures to look even worse because existing models have been on shelves for nearly a year without a refresh. The company plans to reset the lineup next month with the Galaxy Watch 9 and Watch Ultra 2, likely around July 22, and rumors suggest the Ultra 2 may finally add 5G support. Meanwhile, every Apple Watch in the 2025 lineup already supports 5G, reinforcing a perception gap on connectivity and future-proof features. If Samsung’s new hardware does not quickly reverse the shipment slide, the narrative will harden: when buyers weigh ecosystems and health tracking against aging LTE devices, Apple feels like the safer long-term bet.
A slower-growth future where Apple still pulls ahead
Looking beyond this quarter, the smartwatch category is set for modest expansion rather than explosive growth, which favors brands already on top. Counterpoint projects the market will keep a compound annual growth rate of around 3% through 2030, with chip shortages and macroeconomic pressure acting as mild brakes rather than hard stops. Because premium watches carry higher margins and lower component costs, they are likely to weather memory shortages better than smartphones and laptops. In that context, Apple’s current lead is not a temporary spike; it is a structural advantage in a maturing market. When total shipments rise only 4% but one player takes nearly all of that growth, competitors are not just behind on numbers—they are behind on the product story users are buying into. Unless Samsung and other Wear OS brands can align their hardware and health tracking features with that story, Apple Watch’s market share dominance will become harder to challenge with each slow, steady year.
