AI Has Turned RAM and SSDs into Luxury Components
Over the past year, memory costs for PC builders have climbed far beyond normal market swings. Fixed transaction prices for DRAM jumped 20–50% month-on-month starting in April 2025, while NAND flash rose 4–11% in the same period. The impact is obvious at the component level: a 32GB DDR5 kit that sold for USD 200 (approx. RM920) two years ago now struggles to appear under USD 350 (approx. RM1,610). The core problem is the AI boom. Major manufacturers have pivoted factories toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to feed AI accelerators, starving mainstream DRAM and SSD lines of capacity. Data centers bidding aggressively for advanced chips have effectively priced everyday builders out of the budget segment, turning typical upgrades into major investments and delaying new builds for gamers, creators, and small businesses alike.
How Expanded Production Could Break the AI Supercycle
While traditional leaders continue to chase AI profits, a new wave of manufacturers is scaling up in the background. One major producer now consumes roughly 500,000 domestically produced wafers per month for 3D NAND alone, signaling massive capacity aimed squarely at commodity storage. At the same time, another key player has begun supplying DDR5 chips that are already appearing in enthusiast-grade modules from brands like Corsair. This surge targets exactly the segments that have been squeezed by the AI pivot: standard DRAM and SSDs for PCs and servers. Analysts argue that if this build-out continues, the current AI-driven supercycle could split into two distinct markets—tight and expensive for HBM, but increasingly competitive and affordable for everyday memory and storage products.
Expert Forecasts: When to Expect a DRAM Price Drop
Industry insiders are starting to put timelines on when the extra capacity might translate into a real DRAM price drop. Kye-hyun Kyung, former head of a major chip and display division, recently predicted that meaningful relief should begin in the second half of next year, assuming ongoing investments in fabrication lines pay off. His view is backed by early signals: DDR5 modules using new suppliers’ dies are already shipping at speeds up to 6000 MT/s with CL36 timings, and those manufacturers claim to be ramping toward even higher data rates. Analysts tracking wafer output warn that structural undersupply for AI-specific memory will likely persist through 2026, but they also note that commodity DRAM and NAND could decouple sooner as fresh production increasingly targets mainstream PC and data-center segments.
Will SSD Prices Decline Alongside RAM?
The same forces reshaping DRAM are at work in the NAND market, setting the stage for a potential SSD price decline. As producers expand 3D NAND output using large volumes of locally sourced wafers, they are positioned to supply vast quantities of flash for consumer and enterprise drives. Meanwhile, export restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipment have constrained some established players’ ability to expand older-node capacity, the very technology that underpins many mainstream SSDs. This imbalance opens room for new entrants to compete aggressively on price. Analysts caution that the near-term outlook still includes pockets of tight supply, especially for premium enterprise drives tied closely to AI workloads. However, if current expansion plans stay on track, oversupply in commodity NAND could emerge, creating downward pressure on SSD prices across OEM and retail channels.
What PC Builders Should Do Now
For anyone planning a desktop build or major upgrade, the central question is whether to buy now or wait for memory price relief. With DRAM and NAND still elevated by the AI boom, short-term bargains are unlikely. However, multiple signals—rising wafer consumption, global brands adopting new DRAM suppliers, and expert forecasts pointing to the second half of next year—suggest that both RAM and SSD prices may start easing as fresh capacity hits the market. If you can tolerate your current performance for another upgrade cycle, holding off could net significant savings once oversupply pressures emerge. On the other hand, if your system is struggling today, consider buying only what you need now and leaving extra RAM slots and storage bays open to capitalize on a potential DRAM price drop and SSD price decline later.