The New Reality: Four-Figure Losses on “Top” Phones
Smartphone depreciation rates describe how much monetary value a phone loses over time, and new data shows that premium flagship phones, especially foldables, are shedding more than USD 1,000 (approx. RM4,600) in value within a single year, sharply changing the true cost of ownership for consumers who buy at launch and frequently upgrade.
Here is the uncomfortable headline for buyers: a USD 2,000 (approx. RM9,200) iPhone Ultra or iPhone Fold could be worth close to a mid-range device 12 months later. A study commissioned by resale marketplace SellCell shows foldable smartphone owners lose almost USD 1,000 (approx. RM4,600) on average within 12 months — nearly USD 400 (approx. RM1,800) more than owners of traditional flagship phones. Foldables lose an average of 64.6% of their value, while standard flagships drop 55.3% in the same period. This is not a niche problem for spec geeks; it is a direct hit to anyone who trades in, sells, or finances their phones.
How Bad Is the Drop? The Numbers Behind the Hype
Strip away the marketing, and the math is brutal. Foldable smartphones lose an average of 64.6% of their value, or USD 997.69 (approx. RM4,600), within 12 months, while traditional smartphones lose 55.3%, or USD 605.32 (approx. RM2,800), over the same period. That means foldables retain only 35.4% of their launch price after a year, versus 44.7% for standard flagships. For a hypothetical USD 2,000 (approx. RM9,200) foldable iPhone Ultra, following current foldable trends would mean losing USD 1,292 (approx. RM5,900) in a year and ending up at roughly USD 708 (approx. RM3,300).
This is not an outlier effect from one bad device. Five of the six largest monetary losses in the study came from foldables, and the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6 1TB alone dropped USD 1,479.99 (approx. RM6,800) in 12 months. The pattern is clear: the more expensive and experimental the phone, the more savage the early-year depreciation. Buyers are effectively funding the R&D for next year’s model — and paying for it in resale losses.
Apple’s Advantage—and Its Limits
If any brand can soften this blow, it is Apple. The same SellCell analysis shows the iPhone 16 lineup retained 51.5% of its value after 12 months, the best performance among major brands. Nine of the ten best-performing devices for value retention were iPhones. OnePlus followed at 46.8%, Google at 40.8%, Samsung at 39.5%, and Motorola at 24.5%. In other words, iPhone resale value remains the benchmark for phone value retention.
However, even Apple cannot bend physics or early-adopter economics. A USD 2,000 (approx. RM9,200) iPhone Fold is projected to lose USD 1,292 (approx. RM5,900) in 12 months if it behaves like Android foldables. If Apple matches the iPhone 16’s retention, the first-year loss might shrink to roughly USD 970 (approx. RM4,500) — still a painful hit, only less catastrophic. And there is another risk: the iPhone Ultra/iPhone Fold is expected to be a fragile device, so any physical damage could accelerate value loss even further. First-generation foldables historically perform worst on resale once a successor arrives, amplifying the damage.
The Hidden Cost of Ownership for Flagship Buyers
The high price of premium flagships is no longer the whole story; the real sting is how fast that money disappears. Apple is expected to price the base iPhone Ultra around USD 2,000 (approx. RM9,200). If it tracks current foldable smartphone depreciation rates, the owner is burning through USD 1,292 (approx. RM5,900) of value in a single year. Foldable owners already lose an average of USD 997.69 (approx. RM4,600) in 12 months, nearly USD 400 (approx. RM1,800) more than standard phone buyers. The bigger the launch price, the bigger the absolute loss — and flagship phone costs are climbing, not falling.
This should change how consumers think about upgrades. Buying the iPhone Fold at launch means absorbing the full hit on an unproven category for Apple, with resale value falling sharply once a successor appears. Apple rarely discounts its hardware, so waiting for a sale may not save much. The data even suggests that the iPhone Fold is a device to buy because you want it, not because you expect to recoup the cost. For budget-conscious buyers, that makes these devices status symbols first and financial black holes second.
How Buyers Should Respond: Treat Phones Like Cars
Consumers need to start treating premium phones like rapidly depreciating assets, not permanent investments. The numbers make one point very clear: resale value must be part of the buying decision, especially when stepping into USD 2,000 (approx. RM9,200) territory. If you plan to upgrade often, long-term phone value retention matters more than another camera lens or hinge trick.
For most people, that means a few practical shifts. First, favor traditional flagships or mainstream iPhones, which statistically hold value better than experimental foldables. Second, time upgrades around the resale market: selling before a new generation launches can limit your loss. Third, protect the device; a fragile foldable with visible wear will sink in value even faster. Ultimately, foldables like the iPhone Ultra or iPhone Fold should be bought as luxury gadgets for those who accept the hit. Everyone else should view four-figure smartphones with the same skepticism they would bring to a flashy, fast-depreciating car.
