What OpenAI’s Leaked Numbers Reveal About AI Economics
OpenAI’s leaked financials and confidential IPO filing highlight a central question for the AI sector: can frontier models, with extreme compute and research costs, ever produce durable profits at scale without sacrificing innovation speed. According to financial statements cited by Ed Zitron and the Financial Times, OpenAI generated USD 13.07 billion (approx. RM60.2 billion) in revenue in 2025 but recorded a USD 20.92 billion (approx. RM96.4 billion) operating loss on total costs of USD 34 billion (approx. RM156.8 billion). Research and development alone reached USD 19.18 billion (approx. RM88.5 billion), while sales and marketing climbed to USD 5.73 billion (approx. RM26.4 billion). The company improved efficiency somewhat: it spent USD 2.37 (approx. RM10.9) per dollar of revenue in 2024 versus USD 1.60 (approx. RM7.4) in 2025, but absolute losses widened. These figures sharpen the debate over AI business model profitability and the sustainability of heavy-subsidy growth.
Inside the OpenAI IPO Filing and Unusual Corporate Structure
OpenAI disclosed on June 8 that it had confidentially submitted a draft S-1 to the SEC, confirming a filing reportedly made on or around May 22. The listing, led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, is tentatively aimed at a September–November window and follows Anthropic’s own confidential filing and SpaceX’s roadshow, creating a cluster of high‑profile frontier‑tech offerings. OpenAI Group PBC, the for‑profit public benefit corporation created in an October 28, 2025 recapitalization, is controlled by the OpenAI Foundation with a 26% stake plus a warrant, while Microsoft holds roughly 27% and employees and other investors own the remainder. Revenue is said to be roughly USD 24 billion (approx. RM110.7 billion) annualized with gross margins near 33%, far below classic software IPOs. OpenAI itself warns it may not turn cash‑flow positive until 2030, against compute commitments estimated at USD 600 billion (approx. RM2.77 trillion).
Unit Economics, Massive Losses, and the Path to Profitability
The scale of OpenAI’s losses forces investors to probe unit economics instead of headline revenue. One analysis of OpenAI’s 2025 and 2026 figures calculates that the company loses roughly USD 1.22 (approx. RM5.6) for every dollar of revenue earned, even as annualized revenue has reportedly grown 12x in two years to USD 24 billion (approx. RM110.7 billion). The renegotiated Microsoft revenue‑share deal, which caps payments at USD 38 billion (approx. RM175.4 billion) through 2030 instead of a prior trajectory near USD 135 billion (approx. RM623.8 billion), may help margins but also limits one of OpenAI’s most valuable distribution channels. With gross margins around 33% and expected losses of about USD 14 billion (approx. RM64.7 billion) in 2026, the AI business model profitability question is immediate: can prices rise, costs fall, and usage grow fast enough to reverse the current pattern of spending more than a dollar to earn one.
Competitive and Regulatory Pressures Ahead of the OpenAI IPO
OpenAI’s IPO will enter a market where growth is no longer the only story. ChatGPT’s reported app market share has slid from 69% to 45% within a year as rivals like Gemini and Grok gain ground, suggesting that user growth may not stay effortless or exclusive. At the same time, a 42‑state coalition led by New York Attorney General Letitia James subpoenaed OpenAI over chatbot safety, targeting features such as chat memory, engagement hooks, and sycophancy in a product with 800 million weekly users. This probe must be disclosed in the OpenAI IPO filing and could force large‑scale product changes. Investors will weigh these risks against a valuation last pegged around USD 852 billion (approx. RM3.94 trillion). In contrast, Anthropic has indicated it expects an operating profit of USD 559 million (approx. RM2.6 billion) in the June quarter, underscoring how divergent AI company losses and strategies already are.
What OpenAI’s Numbers Mean for AI Valuations in Public Markets
OpenAI’s combination of explosive revenue, deep AI company losses, and massive capital needs will shape how public markets value advanced AI platforms. With a recent funding round raising USD 122 billion (approx. RM564.6 billion) at a USD 730 billion (approx. RM3.37 trillion) pre‑money valuation and post‑money valuation of USD 852 billion (approx. RM3.94 trillion), OpenAI already trades at a level that would place it among the largest names in major indices. Yet its own projections of continued losses through 2026 and cash‑flow break‑even only by 2030 imply years of negative free cash flow during an intense capex cycle. For investors assessing the OpenAI IPO filing, the key questions are whether current pricing assumes stable quasi‑monopoly economics that may never arrive, and how much downside exists if AI business model profitability looks more like capital‑heavy infrastructure than high‑margin software.
