Apple’s 25% Grab: Why One Phone Can Rewire a Whole Market
The Apple foldable iPhone refers to Apple’s first book-style, foldable-screen iPhone—widely expected to be branded iPhone Ultra foldable—that analysts forecast will immediately capture about one-quarter of global foldable smartphone shipments and force rivals to rethink their strategies and product roadmaps. That is not a niche experiment; it is a power move. Counterpoint Research predicts Apple’s debut foldable will account for 25% of global foldable smartphone shipments in 2026, turning a category long defined by Samsung into a genuine multi-player contest. At the same time, total foldable smartphone shipments are projected to grow 21% year over year in 2026, helped by Apple’s arrival and rising demand for premium book-style designs. In other words, the iPhone Ultra foldable is set to be both a new product line and a growth engine that reshapes the foldable phone market share landscape overnight.
Samsung’s Sliding Dominance and a New Foldable League Table
For years, the foldable smartphone 2026 picture seemed easy to sketch: Samsung on top, everyone else scrambling for leftovers. That era is ending. Samsung is projected to remain the market leader, but its share is expected to decline from 40% in 2025 to 32% the following year as competition heats up. Apple is forecast to debut right behind with 25% of global foldable shipments, while Huawei is projected at 24%, Motorola at 8%, and HONOR at 3%. That is a remarkably flat top tier: three brands clustered within eight percentage points. Counterpoint Associate Director Liz Lee argues that 2026 will mark a new phase for the foldable smartphone market, and the numbers back her up. Samsung no longer has the luxury of defining what a foldable should be; it now has to defend its lead in a segment that Apple is about to make mainstream.
| Brand | Projected Foldable Share | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 32% | Market leader but declining |
| Apple (iPhone Ultra foldable) | 25% | Newcomer, strong second |
| Huawei | 24% | Close third |
| Motorola | 8% | Niche player |
| HONOR | 3% | Small but present |
Book-Style Foldables, AI Workflows, and Real-World Use
The most important shift is not the hinge; it is how people will work and play on these devices. Counterpoint expects Apple’s entry to intensify competition in the premium book-type foldable segment, and that is no coincidence. The firm says wider book-type foldables could become increasingly relevant as AI features move beyond chat-based interactions into everyday workflows. Tasks such as summarizing documents, editing content, managing schedules and moving information across apps all benefit from more screen space and a more flexible layout. Apple’s first foldable iPhone is rumoured to adopt a wider, book-style design similar to a recent Samsung Galaxy Z Fold model, and to differentiate itself with a nearly invisible display crease and a higher-quality hinge mechanism intended to improve durability and make folding feel smoother. If that combination works, foldables stop being gadget experiments and become the default AI-first productivity phones.
Production Bets and the Road to a Foldable iPhone Ultra Era
Apple is not dipping a toe into foldables; it is jumping in with confidence. Recent supply chain reports suggest the company is increasingly sure of demand for its first foldable iPhone, instructing suppliers to produce around 10 million units instead of an earlier forecast of 7 to 8 million, signalling higher-than-expected sales expectations ahead of launch. Apple is widely expected to brand the device as the iPhone Ultra, positioned as its most expensive iPhone to date. Counterpoint believes Apple’s arrival will help drive that 21% year-on-year growth in the foldable market, while Lee says this will mark a new phase for the category. Put plainly, Apple is betting the next big iPhone story is not a small spec bump but a new format. Rivals now have a narrow window to refine their own foldable strategies before the launch wave hits.
What 25% Share Really Means for Samsung and Everyone Else
A quarter of the foldable phone market share in year one is more than a strong debut; it is a declaration. Samsung still has a clear advantage in product maturity, channel reach and existing foldable user experience, and its upcoming wider Fold model is expected to make the foldable experience feel more natural for multitasking and AI-assisted productivity on a single screen. But once Apple’s iPhone Ultra foldable ships at scale, that advantage will shrink from comfortable lead to contested territory. Huawei, Motorola and HONOR face a harsher reality: competing for buyers who may now see foldables as either an Apple or Samsung choice. The most likely outcome is not collapse for smaller players, but consolidation around better ideas—wider designs, smarter AI workflows, more durable hinges. In that sense, Apple’s 25% is less a threat than a forcing function that will either sharpen the foldable field or expose who was coasting.
